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Change in sea surface pH caused by anthropogenic CO2 between the 1700s and the 1990s
Ocean acidification is the name given to the ongoing decrease in the pH of the Earth\'s oceans, caused by their uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Between 1751 and 1994 surface ocean pH is estimated to have decreased from approximately 8.179 to 8.104 (a change of -0.075)Orr, James C.; Fabry, Victoria J.; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Doney, Scott C.; Feely, Richard A. et al. (2005). "Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms". Nature 437 (7059): 681-686. doi:10.1038/nature04095. ISSN 0028-0836. Key, R.M.; Kozyr, A.; Sabine, C.L.; Lee, K.; Wanninkhof, R.; Bullister, J.; Feely, R.A.; Millero, F.; Mordy, C. and Peng, T.-H. (2004). "A global ocean carbon climatology: Results from GLODAP". Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18: GB4031. doi:10.1029/2004GB002247. ISSN 0886-6236. .
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In the natural carbon cycle, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) represents a balance of fluxes between the oceans, terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. Human activities such as land-use changes, the combustion of fossil fuels, and the production of cement have led to a new flux of CO2 into the atmosphere. Some of this has remained in the atmosphere (where it is responsible for the rise in atmospheric concentrations), some is believed to have been taken up by terrestrial plants, and some has been absorbed by the oceans.
When CO2 dissolves, it reacts with water to form a balance of ionic and non-ionic chemical species : dissolved free carbon dioxide (CO2 (aq)), carbonic acid (H2CO3), bicarbonate (HCO3-) and carbonate (CO32-). The ratio of these species depends on factors such as seawater temperature and alkalinity (see the article on the ocean\'s solubility pump for more detail).
| Time | pH | pH change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-industrial (1700s) | 8.179 | 0.000 | analysed field |
| Present-day (1994) | 8.104 | -0.075 | field |
| 2050 (2×CO2 = 560 ppm) | 7.949 | -0.230 | model |
| 2100 (IS92a)Review of Past IPCC Emissions Scenarios, IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (ISBN 0521804930). | 7.824 | -0.355 | model |
Dissolving CO2 in seawater also increases the hydrogen ion (H+) concentration in the ocean, and thus decreases ocean pH. The use of the term "ocean acidification" to describe this process was introduced in Caldeira and Wickett (2003)Caldeira, K.; Wickett, M.E. (2003). "Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH". Nature 425 (6956): 365-365. doi:10.1038/425365a. ISSN 0028-0836. . Since the industrial revolution began, it is estimated that surface ocean pH has dropped by slightly less than 0.1 units (on the logarithmic scale of pH), and it is estimated that it will drop by a further 0.3 - 0.5 units by 2100 as the ocean absorbs more anthropogenic CO2Raven, J. A. et al. (2005). Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Royal Society, London, UK.. Note that, although the ocean is acidifying, its pH is still greater than 7 (that of neutral water), so the ocean could also be described as becoming less alkaline.
Although the natural absorption of CO2 by the world\'s oceans helps mitigate the climatic effects of anthropogenic emissions of CO2, it is believed that the resulting decrease in pH will have negative consequences, primarily for oceanic calcifying organisms. These use the calcite or aragonite polymorphs of calcium carbonate to construct cell coverings or skeletons. Calcifiers span the food chain from autotrophs to heterotrophs and include organisms such as coccolithophores, corals, foraminifera, echinoderms, crustaceans and molluscs.
Under normal conditions, calcite and aragonite are stable in surface waters since the carbonate ion is at supersaturating concentrations. However, as ocean pH falls, so does the concentration of this ion, and when carbonate becomes under-saturated, structures made of calcium carbonate are vulnerable to dissolution. Research has already found that coralsGattuso, J.-P.; Frankignoulle, M.; Bourge, I.; Romaine, S. and Buddemeier, R. W. (1998). "Effect of calcium carbonate saturation of seawater on coral calcification". Global and Planetary Change 18 (1-2): 37-46. doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(98)00035-6. ISSN 0921-8181. , coccolithophore algaeRiebesell, Ulf; Zondervan, Ingrid; Rost, Björn; Tortell, Philippe D.; Zeebe, Richard E. and François M. M. Morel (2000). "Reduced calcification of marine plankton in response to increased atmospheric CO2". Nature 407 (6802): 364-367. doi:10.1038/35030078. ISSN 0028-0836. (Subscription required) , foraminiferaPhillips, Graham; Chris Branagan. "Ocean Acidification – The BIG global warming story", ABC TV Science: Catalyst, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 2007-09-13. Retrieved on 2007-09-18. , shellfishGazeau, F.; Quiblier, C.; Jansen, J. M.; Gattuso, J.-P.; Middelburg, J. J. and Heip, C. H. R. (2007). "Impact of elevated CO2 on shellfish calcification". Geophysical Research Letters 34: L07603. doi:10.1029/2006GL028554. ISSN 0094-8276. and pteropods experience reduced calcification or enhanced dissolution when exposed to elevated CO2. The Royal Society of London published a comprehensive overview of ocean acidification, and its potential consequences, in June 2005. Researcher Gretchen Hofmann, in 2008, said that as the ocean becomes more acidic and warmer, pteropods (organisms also known as the sea butterfly) are not able to survive. "It\'s possible by 2050 they may not be able to make a shell anymore. If we lose these organisms, the impact on the food chain will be catastrophic." Climate Change Seen Turning Seas Acidic, 93106, March 3, 2008, University of California Santa Barbara.
While the full ecological consequences of these changes in calcification are still uncertain, it appears likely that calcifying species will be adversely affected. There is also some evidence that the effect of acidification on coccolithophores (among the most abundant phytoplankton in the ocean) in particular may eventually exacerbate climate change, by decreasing the earth\'s albedo via their effects on oceanic cloud coverRuttiman, J. (2006). "Sick Seas". Nature 442 (7106): 978-980. doi:10.1038/442978a. ISSN 0028-0836. (Subscription required)
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Aside from calcification (and specifically calcifiers), organisms may suffer other adverse effects, either directly as reproductive or physiological effects (e.g. CO2-induced acidification of body fluids, known as hypercapnia), or indirectly through negative impacts on food resources. However, as with calcification, as yet there is not a full understanding of these processes in marine organisms or ecosystems.
| Sea surface "present day" (1990s) anthropogenic CO2 | Vertical inventory of "present day" (1990s) anthropogenic CO2 |
Change in surface CO32- ion from the 1700s to the 1990s |
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The following packages calculate the state of the carbonate system in seawater (including pH):
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